impact of U.S. election on Taiwan 結果共7筆

Discover how Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai reaffirms the R.O.C.’s sovereignty and discusses the nation’s stance on geopolitical issues and the U.S. presidential election’s impact.

Following the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan’s presidential election, a report by the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) suggests that Beijing might escalate activities in gray zone areas. The report highlights Taiwan’s increased geopolitical prominence and its pivotal role in semiconductor manufacturing, making the stability of the Taiwan Strait a key concern for the U.S. and other Western nations. The report also notes that Vice President Lai Ching-te won the election by over 40% of votes, breaking the trend of switching ruling parties every eight years since direct presidential elections were implemented in 1996. The victorious DPP aims to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses and relations with like-minded nations while resisting negotiations with Beijing. Additionally, the party seeks to reduce Taiwan’s trade dependency on China and strengthen ties with significant partners such as Australia, Europe, and Japan. With no party securing a majority in the legislative assembly, the DPP faces a ＂minority government and majority opposition＂ scenario, which could hinder the government’s legislative and budgeting process and impact Taiwan-U.S. ties. Despite the election, cross-strait relations and regional tensions are unlikely to undergo fundamental changes. Taiwan’s vital position in semiconductor manufacturing and geopolitics ensures its continued rise in importance, with the U.S. and Western nations playing a crucial role in maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait. The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November is expected to significantly impact the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle, and a potential return of former President Trump to the White House might please Beijing, according to the report.

Kuomintang candidate Wang Hung-wei raises concerns about the impact of Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te’s presidential victory on Taiwan Strait stability and U.S.-China relations, questioning the future of Taiwan under Lai’s leadership.

The upcoming Taiwan presidential election is expected to have a significant impact on the country’s economic growth, according to a research report by France’s Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking company. The report suggests that regardless of the election outcome, Taiwan is poised for economic growth, with the consumer and tech industries leading the way. The research predicts that economic growth could increase from 1.2% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024. While candidates share similar social and labor policies, the report highlights the major differences in their positions on industrial and energy areas, as well as Taiwan’s economic relationship with China. The report also mentions the potential role of Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je in triggering legislative instability. The incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), leading in polls, is expected to continue pushing for diversified trade and investment policies, shifting focus from China to the U.S. and other Asian regions. However, achieving these targets may be challenging as Taiwan has missed out on regional trade and economic agreements such as RCEP, CPTTP, and the U.S.-led IPEF. If the Kuomintang (KMT) wins the election, they might seek closer trade and investment links with China by expanding the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), according to Natixis.

The George Washington University Professor Robert Sutter argues that Taiwan’s elections have little impact on U.S. policy towards the island, but the upcoming U.S. presidential election in 2024 could be significant. Both political parties in the U.S. and Congress have prioritized defending American interests and countering China’s actions, with Taiwan playing an increasingly important role. Taiwan’s strategic position, high-tech development, democratic politics, and free market economy have influenced the international order and led to stronger U.S. support. Sutter predicts that if Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate, wins the election, U.S.-Taiwan cooperation will further deepen. However, Sutter also suggests that the 2024 U.S. election, particularly if a candidate with an ＂America First＂ stance like Donald Trump prevails, could bring a shift in U.S. policy consistency towards Taiwan and pose challenges in countering China’s provocations.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that he would revoke current President Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) if he wins the 2024 presidential election. Trump argues that the IPEF could negatively impact the American manufacturing industry and lead to increased unemployment rates. The U.S. previously withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) due to similar concerns. Negotiations for Biden’s IPEF began in September 2022, with a focus on major southern powers like India and Indonesia, aiming to promote economic cooperation and exclude China. The IPEF includes countries such as Australia, Singapore, Japan, and 10 other Indo-Pacific nations, constituting about 40% of the global GDP. It emphasizes fair and resilient trade, supply chain resilience, and clean energy. Taiwan’s chief trade negotiator expressed the country’s interest in monitoring the IPEF’s development and presenting a proposal for Taiwan’s inclusion at the appropriate time. President Tsai Ing-wen has also expressed Taiwan’s desire to join the IPEF, believing it would create more business opportunities for Taiwanese and U.S. companies.

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu, reassures the nation of the U.S.’ consistent support ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden’s scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco on November 15. Wu states that Taiwan is likely to be a topic of discussion in the meeting and that the Foreign Ministry is closely monitoring relevant information. The Biden-Xi meeting will take place on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and will be their first face-to-face conversation since last November. Wu also addresses rumors about Taiwan’s representative to the U.S., Hsiao Bi-khim, potentially becoming the running mate for Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate Lai Ching-Te, stating that the Ministry cannot answer election-related matters. However, Wu assures the public that personnel changes in diplomatic positions are routine and do not impact Taiwan’s relations with the U.S.